Monday, December 8, 2014

Grand Prix Final Preview

A month and a half of intense competition is about to climax. (Yes, I meant it to sound the way it sounds.)

The Grand Prix Final may not sound like a big deal when you compare it to Worlds or the Olympics, but it really is. It's a competition where the cream of the crop skate head to head, and we really get to see what they're made of. Here's a list of the qualifiers, based on their results in the last six competitions.

Here are some of my thoughts on the events:

Ladies
It was going to be Russia vs USA, but since Gracie Gold had to withdraw last week due to a stress fracture, it's going to be Russia vs USA vs Japan, with Rika Hongo replacing Gracie. Rika and Ashley Wagner don't stand much of a chance at a medal in my opinion, so this will be an interesting matchup of Russia's top skaters, and preview of what's going to go down at Russian nationals. My money's on Elena Radionova winning, with Elizaveta Tuktamysheva in a close second. When Radionova skates clean, her technical scores are just too high to beat.

Men
If Yuzuru Hanyu hadn't gotten knocked off his game (literally), he'd probably be a contender in the Final. But after a lackluster performance at NHK last week, I'm starting to doubt his commitment to Sparkle Motion. Instead we'll have Russia's Maxim Kovtun, Spain's Javier Fernandez and Japan's Tatsuki Machida contending for the gold, I'm thinking. Kovtun has won the two Grand Prix competitions he did by default in my opinion - he's terribly unrefined on the ice, with little to no presentation skill to speak of (he's almost hard to watch). But he gets high marks for technical merit that make up for it. Javier Fernandez is amazing, but not always consistent. Tatsuki Machida lies somewhere in between the two, with explosive technical merit when he's on, and decent presentation.

Pairs
It is shaping up to be a run for gold between Russians Ksenia Stolbova/Fedor Klimov and Meagan Duhamel/Eric Radford. Both are tied in the points totals. I wouldn't totally count out Yuko Kavaguti and Alexander Smirnov either, but they've shown more vulnerability in competition lately.

Dance
It seems like it could be a thrilling three-way battle between Americans Madison Chock/Evan Bates, Canadians Kaitlyn Weaver/Andrew Poje and French ice dancers Gabriella Papadakis/Guillaume Cizeron. All three teams are tied in the standings, and have given strong performances so far this season.

fwiw, here are my picks:

Grand Prix Final Event
Ladies A
Elena Radionova (RUS)
Ladies B
Julia Lipnitskaia (RUS)
Ladies C
Ashley Wagner (USA)
Men's A
Javier Fernandez (ESP)
Men's B
Tatsuki Machida (JPN)
Men's C
Yuzuru Hanyu (JPN)
Pairs A
Meagan Duhamel/Eric Radford (CAN)
Pairs B
Yuko Kavaguti/Alexander Smirnov (RUS)
Pairs C
Wenjing Sui/Cong Han (CHN)
Ice Dancing A
Madison Chock/Evan Bates (USA)
Ice Dancing B
Gabriella Papadakis/Guillaume Cizeron (FRA)
Ice Dancing C
Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier (CAN)

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